Already, fares are cut to a bare bones minimum and profits if any are made by extracting every last dollar from passengers while they are captive aboard.

In many respects the ships seem to be ghettos sailing a limited itinerary in the Northern Caribbean. I suspect that repeat business is minimal, (unlike Holland America) and that marketing departments must be going insane trying to get new business from those who have never cruised before.

I would predict cancellations or cutbacks on newbuild megaliners. Some in service may even be mothballed in the next year or so if the cruise market and the economy continues to weaken.

I predict that the most popular size of vessel will be in the 30 to 60,000 ton range.Few of which are available.

These are rambling thoughts and opinions open to criticism.

I personally hope that we will return to the smaller vessels. Cruise fees will have to be higher but hopefully, class will return to the cruise experience instead of the present smoke and mirrors operation.

I agree that the US market is becoming saturated, but their is plenty of meat on the bone, in Europe.

As you are aware, our ships are smaller and prices higher. I suspect we will see more US mega-ships in Euopean waters, but they will fix the prices high and avoid a 'price war', where everybody loses!

Goodbyetomega,goodbyetomanycruisers.

Sorry topgun, but RCI has not stopped launching megas; it plans 5 "Voyager Class" ships in all. Voyager and Explo9rer of the Seas are sailing now and will be joined by Adventure of the Seas in November.

The majors are all delaying their newbuilds (2004 and 2005)......and is it any wonder???

The lower fares have just lead to increased nickel and diming on board and cuts in amenities.

I, for one, would rather pay more, receive a better product for my money, and cruise less often. Which is a reason many of us who had enjoyed the so-called "premium lines" now have to jump "up" to the so-called "luxury" lines.

Malcolm: I have checked US prices vs. UK prices for Celebrity European cruises. Very little difference. And much, much less expensive than P&O!! I know two of my UK clients do not discount as much as the two cruise-only agents I use.. so that can be part of the pricing structure "difficulty" you see.

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Originally posted by ocngypz:
Malcolm: I have checked US prices vs. UK prices for Celebrity European cruises. Very little difference. And much, much less expensive than P&O!! I know two of my UK clients do not discount as much as the two cruise-only agents I use.. so that can be part of the pricing structure "difficulty" you see.

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Originally posted by CTrail:
Hence it is cheaper to run a mega ship than it is to keep a smaller vessel going.

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Yes, they call it 'economies of scale'. However, interestingly most budget cruise lines opperate small ships!

We traditionalists, may not appreciate the tremendous size of the new mega ships, but the consumer loves the big ships. Cruise Lines are still trying to reach out to first-time cruisers and the megaships have more to offer the first-time cruiser who is not sure about what to expect on a cruise.

What is happening is that the cruise market is segmenting between the large megaship companies, the small luxury and adventure ships and in the middle the so called traditional cruise companies, such as Celebrity, Holland America, Norwegian, Orient etc. operating what are now considered as mid size ships but with each newbuild are becoming larger and larger while still trying to preserve that small ship personalize service they try so hard to project.

There is probably enought of a mass in the cruising industry to maintain all different levels and size of ships as different people want different cruising experiences.

For example, Fred.Olsen has just purchased their third smaller ship. Olsen's regulars seem to think anything above 30,000 tons is far too big! I think P&O are making a mistake loosing Victoria. Maybe the Victoria regulars will be transfer there allegiance to Olsen?

The budget cruise lines such as Airtours, Thompson, First Choice and others run older/smaller ships too.

Flexible? Move along? I'm all in favour of mega ships, but choice as well. I'm still of the opinion that there will always be smaller ships on offer.

I think we may well see cruise lines choosing to build smaller ships (under 40,000 maybe) again in the future?

When a ship is sold on price alone the typical passenger cares nothing except for the casino and buffet line.

The ultra-rich will always be rich, Seaborne, Siverseas, and Crystal will humm along nicely.

NCL is a generic cruise experience, especially w/o the Norway. I think they will not whether an economic downturn well. Princess too, especilly w/o the Love Boat.

Another problem with megaships is getting around: It would take me 7 minutes to walk from my cabin [forward pool deck] on the Norway to the aft of the ship. I would meet someone on the last day of the cruise for the first time. The people in the cabin next to me, whom I met on the second day on deck, did not realize next door till the last.

People on the Exploiter of the Seas have to use their cell phones to round up people in their group.

Those with limited mobility are better off on a 20-40,000 tonner. Even with a cabin near an elevator on the dining room tower.

Big ship tendering and embarkation is a cattle run at best.

Carnival is cruising GM of the old days. Keep a customer for life by upgrading from Chevy to Cadillac over the years.

It takes ten Chevys to make the profit of one Cadillac.

I believe it would take 10 Carnival berths to make the profit of one Seaborne.

One can take Carnival as a spring breaker, move up to Costa, HAL as they mellow, and when retired and rich, take Seaborne.

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Originally posted by locarno:
[However your statement about the sup rich can't be correct, to wit the sale of the two Sea Goddess ships by Carnival Seabourn devision and the fact that CRL is loosing money with the upscale ships in their portfolio.

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How much of Seaborne's trouble is management not responding to the needs of the market?

Look at how Cunard was tops until the jet age
and declined only to be a loss leader for Carnival. CGT and the Italan line are gone.

Like Cadillac and Mercedes, they were smug and tops at one point, when they wanted more profit they raised prices.

Cadillac and Mercedes both almost went bust and are now sold on price against some formidabale competitors.

Carnival Corporation responds very quickly to market changes and mismanagement among their brands.