What line do you think will be the next to order new ships. We have heard about NCL's plan for Project America- but will Star/NCL order NEW ships as well?

My guess: Celebrity. They have completed their 4 millinnium class ships, and I think the Zenith and Horizon will be sold or transfered within a few years. Look for Celebrity to make an order as soon as conditions improve.

They've gotten three ships over the last year and a half... Infinity, Summit, and Constellation... That should keep 'em going for a while.

But then again maybe you know something I don't?

As for Horizon and Zenith - I don't think it would be a good idea to sell these ships... They need smaller vessels for more exotic destinations. Look at Princess with the "new" Pacific and Tahitian. They needed smaller ships but theirs were getting too old... And I doubt that Horizon and Zenith will be showing signs of old age any time soon.

Who will order new ships? I don't know. Star is by far in the biggest need of new tonnage. The Project America vessel is only a small step towards fleet renewal and modernization. I'd say that Star is probably itching to put in orders for this ship:

In six years, they've added 7 ships and grown from a company with 3700 beds to 16,000 beds. With this tremendous growth, they have not been able to sustain the quality of the product.

I would anitcipate that Celebrity may order one new ship in the next year or two to replace the now aeging Horizon & Zenith. They're begining to show a little age and have been quietly shopped on the market.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Commodore:
The exception are the Holidays "fin".

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Tim @ Cruisepage:
I would anitcipate that Celebrity may order one new ship in the next year or two to replace the now aeging Horizon & Zenith. They're begining to show a little age and have been quietly shopped on the market.

---

True that they aren't getting much attention. Exactly why beats me - the one and only downfall I can think of is lack of balconies...

Personally I think Celebrity would do well to put these ships on more exotic itineraries where they would be more competitive. For instance, Zenith is now being used in South America because Mercury was too big. If they got rid of Horizon and Zenith, what would they put in South America?

They might do well with one in the Pacific too. Celebrity did once cruise in the Pacific, it was a long cruise at the very end of Meridian's career...

One part of being upscale is having upscale itineraries... And some of those do require a smaller ship.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Cruiseny:

What fin?

---

HOLIDAY has a fin, or more appropriately, a pontoon around her stern. This is for stability, and is lacking on her near sisters CELEBRATION and JUBILEE.

quote:

---

Originally posted by eroller:
HOLIDAY has a fin, or more appropriately, a pontoon around her stern. This is for stability, and is lacking on her near sisters CELEBRATION and JUBILEE.

---

Oh. Now going to look at photos...

Concerning Celebrity. The lack of balconies on Zenith and Horizon is a problem- given that other small ships in the upscale market now have them (Prinsendam, Pacific & Tahitian Princess, Royal Princess, Seabourn, Radisson...). However, Celebrity might be wise to keep at least one small ship for the Bermuda route.

With no ships on order, while other premium lines add tonnage (HAL, Princess, Cunard)- Celebrity may dig themselves a hole by loosing market share.

Until Celebrity can establish some brand recognition, chart a clear path and decide exactly what their product is, I dont think you'll see any "growth" in the fleet.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Tim @ Cruisepage:
Star has confirmed that they are in talks with Meyer Werft, Mitsuibishi Heavy Industries and a few other yards over possible newbuilds.

--Tim

---

When Star does place an order don't expect it to be for the Sagittarius-class ship pictured above. That ship was designed as a post-panamax ship for Star Cruises to be built at Meyer Werft. Options for the ships were made when Star ordered the Scorpio-class (now Norwegian Star/Dawn). The options were never exercised because of the slow down in the economy, and Star's purchase of NCL.

Star determined that NCL needed new ships with flexibility in deployment- getting through the canal was a must. Therefore, plans for the 100,000+ ton ship were shelved. My guess is that more Star/Dawn ships will be ordered, or ships of a similar size and design.

As for names - I don't think "Norway" would be a good choice to be used again, unless Star commited to a QM2-like project. Plastering Norway on the side of a new McMegaliner wouldn't do much good.

I agree that some of the NCL vessels could be very good candidates to move to Asia. Pretty soon they'll have four modern megaliners - a huge improvement. Of the remaining five ships, Norway is the only one that really will have to go soon... The others would be very suitable for Asian redeployment if so desired.

Of the four - which do you think would be worth keeping for the US market? I'd say Sea is the best of them... I just can't learn to love Majesty, sorry. All four are really OK, nothing special, but certainly pretty decent tonnage.

It should allow them to really look into getting rid of some of their Asian tonnage... SuperStar Capricorn might be a good candidate for going... And SuperStar Aries is very out of place. That lovely vessel should have better. I was very happy when I saw her going to Orient - I've always wished that ship was on the US market, and it doesn't seem she will be... When, oh when, Star?

SuperStar Leo and Virgo are of course very good, the centerpiece of the Asian fleet. I happen to like Gemini very much, she really was a Jewel of a ship (sorry, couldn't resist it...) and I think she is serving the Asian market very well.

Quite frankly, I don't even understand exactly why they're keeping Norway around at all... I like the old girl very much, but I agree with whoever called her an ageing rock star who has had a few to many "farewell concerts" - I'd rather have seen her go than be cheapened like this... But that's just me.

They do need new ships, to keep up with the rest of the market.

If they get more new megaships, it is of course possible that at least some of the four smaller ships would go to Asia...

I'm with Tim on this. No new builds for Celebrity.

Celebrity needs to fast track whatever changes they are planning. You can't keep digging into the corporate wallet while piddling and twiddling...resolving... and then not solving their biggest problem.... and that is

PRODUCT DELIVERY

Until such time they deliver a consistent "premium" product which will garner per diems they seek.......they'll remain in their downward spiral.

Exotics for Celebrity aren't working. Zenith is faring dismally in bookings for the SA runs through the end of the year.

New orders??? Above and beyond what is already slated: Carnival

[ 08-23-2002: Message edited by: ocngypz ]

So Star Cruises is ready to spend US$100million to build four news ships and the first one expect launch in 2005. As some major cruise line haven't any new ship planning. Star Cruises is now let those shipyards to bit the project (include Asian ship builder). The building cost can reduce around 20-25%.

Eric--The biggest problem Star faces right now is the financing for the 4 newbuilds. 2 of them are the "Project America" ships they already have and the other two would be for the Chinese market, so I doubt we'll see the any 100,000 tonners built for the US market right now. Star's talking with Meyer Werft, Mitsubishi and Samsung (Korea).

Star's Debt to Equity ratio is 112%, so they'll need to raise an additional $400 million in equity before anyone will commit to financing. That means the Lim family will have to increase their holdings by that amount or issue share capital to cover the $400 million and see their holdings diluted.

Commodore--I dont see NCL disposing of Sea or Majesty any time soon as these ships now hold rather lucratve Bermuda contracts. The only reason they havent disposed of Norway is no one wants to buy her and they are hesitant to just lay her up or scrap her and have nothing to offset the losses on the balance sheet. They've gotten themselves into a sticky situation by valuing her at $100 Million + so they'd be forced to take a $100 Million charge against earnings by disposing of her.

Babette--Quite right about the Zenith's dismal performance in South America. I've seen per diems as low as $69 for deluxe oceanview cabins.

CruiseNY--Meridian never made those long South America and South Pacific cruises as she was sold off before they took place.

It's funny that in 1996, Celebrity was poised to become a "global" operation with more longer and exotic cruises and once they were taken over by RCI, they seemed to revert to a mostly cheap caribbean product.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Tim @ Cruisepage:
CruiseNY--Meridian never made those long South America and South Pacific cruises as she was sold off before they took place.

It's funny that in 1996, Celebrity was poised to become a "global" operation with more longer and exotic cruises and once they were taken over by RCI, they seemed to revert to a mostly cheap caribbean product.

---

Question- is a 100,000ton panamax ship possible? I imgaine the ship would have to be so tall and narrow it would be unstable.

quote:

---

Originally posted by skyej:
Question- is a 100,000ton panamax ship possible? I imgaine the ship would have to be so tall and narrow it would be unstable.

---

A question: what is the maximum legnth for Panama? In the 1990s I imagined that Sun Princess and Grandeur of the Seas were the biggest Panamax ships that could be built... But now we have the Radiance class, the Mille-class, the 9000 and 9001 series from Carnival Corp...

quote:

---

Originally posted by Cruiseny:

A question: what is the maximum legnth for Panama? In the 1990s I imagined that Sun Princess and Grandeur of the Seas were the biggest Panamax ships that could be built... But now we have the Radiance class, the Mille-class, the 9000 and 9001 series from Carnival Corp...

Radiance and Mille get up to 90,000 tons...

---

The latest batch of Panamax ships (Radiance, Millie, and Spirit) have pushed the previous limits of tonnage through a new superstructure design. If you look at all of these ships their upper decks (the supersturcture loaded with balconies) are very narrow. Much more narrow than the hull. By making the decks narrow, and building higher they have increased the tonnage, number of balconies, and passanger capasity- WITHOUT making the hull larger- it can still fit in the canal locks.