Cruise Talk: 2011 Predictions

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Topic: 2011 Predictions

reeves35
First Class Passenger
Member # 6021

posted 01-01-2011 06:44 PM

It's the start of a new year so once again it is time for our annual guess the future thread. Unfortunately we haven't been too accurate in the past but we have had the occasional bulls-eye.

FWIW here are mine for 2011

- Princess to unveil details of their newbuilds.
- RCCI to expand its int'l presence to try and compete further with Carnival Corp.
- Europe summer cruises to peak as people get sick of the crowds.
- P&O Australia to sort out their branding. The current all white looks like a stop gap.

Over to you.

Brad

Posts: 343 | From: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: Oct 2005 | IP: Logged

nycruiser
First Class Passenger
Member # 960

posted 01-01-2011 07:47 PM

I would also add:

RCI will announce fleet expansion

Posts: 665 | From: Westchester County, NY | Registered: Dec 1999 | IP: Logged

eroller
First Class Passenger
Member # 1649

posted 01-01-2011 08:30 PM

I think 2011 will be a relatively quiet year for the cruise industry.

Some predictions provided there are no catastrophic world events ...

- rebound of Alaska cruises
- more year round European tonnage announced
- new ship orders for Royal Caribbean, Carnival Cruise Lines, MSC Cruises, and perhaps Holland America
- announcement of one or more of the Princess R-Class ships to P&O

All in all not a very exciting year for big announcements, but 2011 will provide a lot of cruise lines the time to refine their product and focus on existing tonnage.

Ernie

Posts: 7046 | From: Miami, Florida USA | Registered: Oct 2000 | IP: Logged

CruiseBrothersRick
Just Boarded
Member # 35783

posted 01-01-2011 09:41 PM

I'm going with the lines starting with Carnival , to start charging to put a cabin on hold until you make payment like the airlines started, or charging for more than 1 bag delivered to your cabin.

Posts: 9 | From: Orlando | Registered: Aug 2010 | IP: Logged

LeBarryboat
First Class Passenger
Member # 5308

posted 01-01-2011 10:25 PM

I think it's going to be a tough year economically for Americans, so cruise lines will continue to allocate some of their fleet to European destinations because I think this is still a growing market. Watch for cruise lines to announce very unique, rare or even brand new cruise destinations. That's the beauty of the ships, they can be repositioned to demographics that are expanding. I think the ship building trend will slow, and ships will be sold to other markets to increase their potential for profitability. I think cruise lines will find more creative ways to increase revenues from passengers, and the big lines will really kick into gear their creativity in marketing. 2011 will be a big year for cruise lines to creatively tap into the social media and viral marketing. Look for perhaps smaller cruise line mergers. We might see a major airline and a major cruise line "partner" together to transport more Europeans to Florida to embark on cruises.

Posts: 1955 | From: Minnesota | Registered: Jan 2005 | IP: Logged

dougnewman
First Class Passenger
Member # 11349

posted 01-02-2011 01:15 AM

Honestly, things seem so quiet lately (and so dominated by a few big players) that the chances of anything really interesting happen seem fairly small.

I do feel reasonably confident that we will see a new order from Royal Caribbean ... I will say around 140,000 GT, maybe a bit larger.

quote:
Originally posted by LeBarryboat:
We might see a major airline and a major cruise line "partner" together to transport more Europeans to Florida to embark on cruises.

There haven't been any official partnerships, but MIA is definitely seeing a lot more service from Europe than it has in the recent past.

That said, I think something like this would come more in the form of charter flights (and thus probably to FLL), and indeed European tour operators already pair charter flights with cruises in various regions of the world, including the Caribbean. There is even a seasonal FRA-ANC service to accommodate German tourists to Alaska.

Posts: 2072 | From: Long Island, NY, USA | Registered: Sep 2007 | IP: Logged

seacruiser12
First Class Passenger
Member # 42782

posted 01-02-2011 02:44 AM

Any predictions for the cruise industry in the Asia Pacific region?

Posts: 44 | From: Singapore, Singapore | Registered: Nov 2010 | IP: Logged

GregD
First Class Passenger
Member # 4176

posted 01-02-2011 10:07 AM

Hey All,
I agree with everyone that this year will be a quiet year.
I think lines won't be ordering anymore than 1 to "maybe" 2 ships at a time.
I think we will see alot more of fleet revitalizations as they are cheap and offer a "new" product.
I also think that we will see a sluggish ammount of new cruisers.

Posts: 548 | From: Texas | Registered: Sep 2003 | IP: Logged

JohnHJ
First Class Passenger
Member # 30846

posted 01-02-2011 11:21 AM

Reading this thread got me thinking to query those of you who have been CT'ers for a long time / cruise industry followers / professionals / etc......what would you say were 'banner years' for the cruise industry? Meaning....what years do you recall really being 'huge years'. Was it announcements, deliveries, mergers, etc? I ask this to help provide a baseline for why 2011 is going to be a 'quiet' year. Thanks.

Posts: 60 | From: Tallahassee, FL | Registered: Jan 2010 | IP: Logged

Frosty 4
First Class Passenger
Member # 5826

posted 01-02-2011 11:29 AM

Barry wasn't the last Airline/Cruise Line get together was American (airlines) Hawaii Cruises out of Hawaii? This was our first cruise way back when. They had The Independance and Constitution.
F4

Posts: 2531 | From: Illinois | Registered: Jul 2005 | IP: Logged

Andy
First Class Passenger
Member # 3856

posted 01-02-2011 07:55 PM

quote:
Originally posted by seacruiser12:
Any predictions for the cruise industry in the Asia Pacific region?

Costa announces new Asia deployment of a larger ship (Victoria?!)

Posts: 581 | From: Hong Kong | Registered: May 2003 | IP: Logged

Grant
First Class Passenger
Member # 1000

posted 01-02-2011 07:57 PM

I'm afraid that my prediction, or fear for the future, is that of a major disaster of one of the major vessels in service. Each time I am afloat, I wonder just how so many folk could be evacutaed in a timely manner. So many with mobility issues, so many with attitude problems and not likely to follow direction. Alot too seem to think they know more than anyone else, or are more important than others. When I see a heaving 20-40 ft seas, I wonder just how the launching of boats would go, would the 40+ knot wind turn and twist a slide, how would you get people from a slide platform onto a raft when the are heaving up and down. How trained are the majority of the crew? Will the technology work? Look back at an almost new Carnival ship, and the situation with the fire fighting equipment. Look at navigation errors in spite of million dollar technology.
I hate to say it, as I love cruises, but I think that trouble is not too far off. As someone who also works in a martime environment, I know that many others share the same concerns. Fingers crossed, but.....

Posts: 834 | From: Victoria, BC, Canada | Registered: Jan 2000 | IP: Logged

Ernst
First Class Passenger
Member # 5369

posted 01-02-2011 08:23 PM

quote:
Originally posted by Grant:
[...]would the 40+ knot wind turn and twist a slide, how would you get people from a slide platform onto a raft when the are heaving up and down. [...]

Still better than a lifeboat - they are just creepy.

In a way it is surprising that no severe incident involving a large cruise ship happened recently (some ships came close though). Safety standards aboard cruise ships are high but there is indeed still a lot of room for improvement. The new SOLAS regulations are certainly an indicator that at least some of the problems have not only been identified but also acknowledged, however it is on the other hand shocking that such requirements are enforced only now (!!).

Posts: 9746 | From: Eindhoven | Registered: Jan 2005 | IP: Logged

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